TEL AVIV—Israeli Prime Minister
missed a deadline to form a new government, a development that would lead to the end of his 15-year rule if his opponents can patch together their own alternative coalition.
The country’s president is now expected to offer Mr. Netanyahu’s rivals an opportunity to assemble a government, or hand responsibility for selecting a new prime minister to Israel’s parliament. If those efforts fail, Israel could be heading toward another election—its fifth since 2019.
Neither Mr. Netanyahu nor his rivals had a clear path to power after the last ballot, in March. The prime minister—Israel’s longest serving leader—was given first shot at forming a government after his Likud party secured the largest share of the vote and received the most recommendations from other lawmakers.
But after weeks of negotiations and a plethora of proposals, including some in which Mr. Netanyahu offered to temporarily step aside, he failed by Tuesday’s midnight deadline, unable to overcome objections from his right-wing and religious partners to forming a government that would require the support of an Islamist party.
Mr. Netanyahu’s best hope now is that his rivals, who are mainly united by their opposition to him, also fail and propel Israel toward another election. That would keep him in power for at least a few more months as he defends himself in a corruption trial that began in May 2020 and could drag on for years. He denies any wrongdoing, but political analysts say that retaining the premiership could prove pivotal in guiding through legislation that could protect him.
“His dream right now is to keep going. Not only a fifth election, but maybe a sixth, or seventh or eighth,” said
a professor of political science at Tel Aviv University and a former member of Likud.
Mr. Netanyahu might also try to advance a bill that would call for the direct election of the prime minister—a long-shot effort that he could win but still wouldn’t necessarily give him a path to a coalition.
will have to decide whether to pass the mandate to another lawmaker or pass it on to Israel’s parliament, the Knesset. In that case, a majority of lawmakers would have 21 days to agree on a candidate or the country would go back to the ballot box.
If Mr. Rivlin decides to pass the mandate to another candidate, it would likely be
head of the centrist Yesh Atid party. He would then have 28 days to form a government.
Mr. Lapid and
a former Netanyahu ally turned rival who leads the right-wing Yamina party, in recent weeks have been negotiating over forming a unity government in which they would rotate as prime minister. Mr. Bennett, who has seven seats compared with Mr. Lapid’s 17, would serve first in an effort to placate right-wing Likud voters and draw additional right-wingers to join their government. Most Jewish Israelis identify as right-wing.
Still, it would likely be a minority administration and require the support of small Arab Israeli parties to stay in power, making it potentially unstable.
Political analysts said that with the expiration of Mr. Netanyahu’s mandate to form a government, some members of Likud might jump ship to another bloc or present themselves as candidates for prime minister.
“You do not stab Julius Caesar in the back if you know he can retaliate. They are in the position of Brutus,” said
professor emeritus of political science at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
If Mr. Netanyahu fails to hold on to the premiership, he would likely remain a powerful force in Israeli politics. Israeli law forbids an indicted lawmaker from being a minister in a government but Mr. Netanyahu can be the head of the opposition. He is also allowed to be prime minister with enough support.
“Being remembered in the history pages is something that’s very important to him. As the son of a historian, he wants to be there,” said
a former spokesman and chief of staff to Mr. Netanyahu.
Yet over the past two years, more of Mr. Netanyahu’s former allies have broken away from him, including
who went on to form the New Hope party with several other Likud defectors. Mr. Saar has said that Mr. Netanyahu is putting his personal interests and his trial over the good of the country.
The trial, on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, has loomed over much of the negotiations over a new government. Witness testimony began last month, and Mr. Netanyahu has described the allegations as a witch hunt designed to oust him from power. But many of his potential partners have come to acknowledge they have become a motivating factor for the prime minister to stay in office as long as he can.
Mr. Netanyahu tried to engineer a last-minute maneuver in the Knesset last week to place an ally as justice minister before Israel’s attorney general deemed it illegal. Mr. Netanyahu backed down, but the episode soured some of his would-be partners on the idea of working with him.
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